[[Sources]] → Superforecasting --- [Tetlock’s Superforecasting](https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718) is excellent book showing that some people show great skill in calibrating their forecast accuracy when given new information. Hope is not lost! Notes relating to this book are below: - [[more information increases confidence in forecasts, not accuracy]]